Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 1.985769 2.080486 2.181271 2.297236 2.427950 2.571934 2.744260
2025-10-26 1.882803 2.004201 2.138279 2.299287 2.490177 2.713163 2.999726
2025-11-02 1.787862 1.922093 2.073892 2.261387 2.491545 2.772092 3.153026
2025-11-09 1.725427 1.870173 2.037125 2.248375 2.515802 2.854842 3.340584
2025-11-16 1.674885 1.827700 2.006893 2.238366 2.539458 2.935153 3.532184
2025-11-23 1.629874 1.788582 1.977275 2.225361 2.555826 3.004500 3.715672
2025-11-30 1.602384 1.768635 1.969167 2.237807 2.605027 3.122223 3.991397
2025-12-07 1.547281 1.712247 1.912522 2.183122 2.557496 3.094073 4.022481
2025-12-14 1.514637 1.682260 1.887642 2.168562 2.564066 3.145839 4.198598
2025-12-21 1.481150 1.649876 1.858137 2.145842 2.556772 3.174616 4.337550
2025-12-28 1.469913 1.644865 1.863336 2.169974 2.618325 3.317585 4.728375
2026-01-04 1.465983 1.648722 1.879871 2.210148 2.706273 3.514746 5.299057
2026-01-11 1.442239 1.627054 1.862703 2.203221 2.723699 3.597048 5.652955
2026-01-18 1.423842 1.611584 1.853011 2.206138 2.756279 3.710434 6.138898
2026-01-25 1.393153 1.579141 1.819219 2.172287 2.727117 3.704303 6.288659
2026-02-01 1.372268 1.558967 1.801378 2.160914 2.733680 3.767689 6.685569
2026-02-08 1.353469 1.540989 1.785869 2.152129 2.743648 3.838930 7.157453
2026-02-15 1.334678 1.522508 1.769029 2.140484 2.747772 3.898614 7.636810
2026-02-22 1.324816 1.515558 1.767783 2.152087 2.792210 4.050190 8.656498
2026-03-01 1.294872 1.481085 1.727227 2.102046 2.725758 3.949116 8.398495
2026-03-08 1.278230 1.464169 1.710894 2.088760 2.723696 3.993533 8.946718
2026-03-15 1.259798 1.444475 1.690165 2.067924 2.706950 4.002478 9.325712
2026-03-22 1.256013 1.444419 1.697057 2.090179 2.769141 4.206499 11.321203